Steam Hit Rates: Sandbox, FPS Lead
A new analysis estimates Steam game revenues, ranking genres by 'hit rate'. Sandbox and FPS genres have the highest likelihood of earning over $100k, while 2D platformers and hidden object games are the riskiest.
A new revenue report estimates which Steam genres are most likely to be financially successful. The analysis Matt Martindale, and Dr. Tim Ermilov, uses a review-based method to project sales for over 100,000 games on the platform.
The researchers employed the Boxleiter method, a common industry technique. This approach assumes a game's review count is roughly proportional to its sales. For a standard estimate, the number of user reviews is multiplied by 35 to arrive at an estimated unit count. While not exact, the method provides a viable way to map the commercial landscape of Steam.
The report's "genre economics" section ranks genres by their "hit rate." This measures the percentage of games with a specific user tag that have earned more than $100,000. A game only counts towards a genre if the tag is among its six most popular user-applied tags.
Top Genres by Financial Success
According to the data, sandbox games have the highest hit rate on Steam at 27.3%. The report notes this tag is broad, covering vastly different titles like Terraria, Red Dead Redemption 2, and Project Zomboid. It suggests games offering player freedom resonate with the Steam audience.
The first-person shooter (FPS) tag follows with a 21.6% hit rate. The analysis cautions that many games tagged as FPS, such as Schedule I or Portal 2, are not strictly focused on shooting mechanics.
The full top ten list of genres by hit rate is as follows:
| Genre | Hit Rate |
|---|---|
| Sandbox | 27.3% |
| FPS | 21.6% |
| Visual Novel | 19.5% |
| Sports | (Not specified in source) |
| Puzzle | 9.5% |
The source states sports ranks highly but does not provide its exact hit rate percentage. Visual novels' strong performance is noted as a potential surprise, though their ubiquity on Steam is a factor.
High-Risk Genres for Developers
The lowest-ranking tags reveal the riskier segments of the market. Hidden object games have a mere 5.4% hit rate. 2D platformers are only slightly better at 5.5%. Developing a game in these genres is termed "risky business" by the report.
It speculates these genres may be cheaper to develop, leading to more common releases and less chance for any single title to be discovered. The study also notes that 2D platformers have severely dropped in popularity since 2016, while visual novels have maintained a steady presence since 2014.
Revenue Estimates and Weekly Performance
The modeling technique produces striking revenue estimates for individual titles. For example, Baldur's Gate 3 is estimated to have made $1,795,480,003 since its early access launch. In contrast, the physics climbing game Free Solo, released in March, has an estimated revenue of just $34.
A separate weekly revenue chart for August 18-25 is referenced. It shows Mortal Shell 2 had a successful launch, though not as successful as How to Fish, a physics-based fishing simulator. The Wardogs beta is credited for boosting interest in its upcoming full release. Stalker 2 reappeared on the list following a major 2.0 update and a steep discount.
The report clarifies that Star Wars Zero Company released on August 28, so its launch performance will be better reflected in the following week's data. It still placed 12th in the prior week, rising 12 positions due to a last-minute pre-order rush incentivized by cosmetics.
The full study on weloveit.io contains further insights, including a graph where each dot represents an individual game's estimated performance.
